Responding to right-wing populists outside of government: the impact of the AfD on the German party system

Several studies have focused on the effects of right-wing populist parties in parliament or office on the other actors in national party systems. Apart from the uncertainty that newcomers hold to the statics of party systems, the ideology and agenda of right-wing populist parties imply specific normative questions that make it worthwhile to look at their success and their impact on party systems. However, until today, studies that are interested in the system specific consequences of right-wing populist parties focus on their impact in office or, at least, in parliament. Yet party competition takes place before elections and in modern mass media democracies, this means that established parties are most likely to react not only to the electoral success of new competitors (in this case: right-wing populist parties) but to the perception of their success in the future. In other words: it is plausible to assume that the impact of right-wing populist parties on the agenda of the established parties does not ‘start’ when the former hold seats in parliament but as soon as they appear on the national media screen and are framed as serious opponent. It is thus the aim of the intended paper to give a first prototypal study of this constellation, namely a right-wing populist party that is presented as a successful party in the media but does not hold seats in the national parliament. Germany represents a crucial case. In spring 2013, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) appeared on the political stage and has since then put the mainstream parties under pressure - all of them have been responding to the newcomer in one way or another without the AfD holding seats in the national parliament (Bundestag). Thus, the paper shall aim at two main questions: (1) How did the other parties react on the AfD over time? This analysis shall include the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) as they represent two ends of the political mainstream (centre-right/centre-left). Did they adopt their strategies to those of the AfD, did they attack the AfD on their field or did they ignore their topics? The paper shall focus on the crucial topics of the AfD, namely the Euro and the refugee crisis. (2) Which factors caused the reactions of the other parties? Whereas it is, under the conditional logic of party competition, most likely that parties react to the prospective electoral success of their competitor, it is nevertheless open which stimuli precisely influence the strategies of the established parties. For example, the parties could react to poll results or electoral outcomes at the sub-national level (Landtagswahlen). By using both qualitative and quantitative data, such as press releases and poll results, the paper shall provide a first approach to the effects that right-wing populist parties have on established parties and shall represent a first step on further comparative studies on this topic.