The referendum as a strategic weapon: Lesson drawing for the European Union from the 2015 Greek bailout referendum

The Greek referendum of July 2015 on the negotiations with its Eurozone partners over a bailout package was routinely portrayed as an unprecedented event. Yet, from EU comparative perspective it was not particularly unique. Certainly, in regard to some of the typical questions posed by scholars of EU referendums, such as what type of EU referendum it was and why was it called, the first ever Greek referendum on EU matters follows a well-known pattern. In terms of the type of referendum, it was a 'policy' referendum. Although much less popular than the more familiar 'membership' or 'EU treaty ratification' referendums, the policy referendum is becoming a more noticeable feature of the EU referendum landscape. Indeed, the last three EU referendums -Greece in 2015 and Denmark in 2014 and 2015- have all been policy issue referendums, and so too will be the next scheduled EU referendum, to be held by The Netherlands in April 2016. As to the motives for calling a referendum, here too a familiar dynamic has been at play. The Greek referendum merely adds to a long list of EU referendums that has been called for purely partisan motives -Cameron's forthcoming Brexit referendum being the next partisan generated EU referendum that will be held. Notwithstanding the aforementioned points of comparative departure, there are some context specific dynamics that could shed new light on the contested politics surrounding referendums on EU matters. To this end, the paper follows a two-fold approach. The first part is more qualitative in nature and places the Greek referendum in a comparative EU setting. The second part is quantitatively oriented, drawing on two unique datasets, to address questions related to the polarization of the campaign and the ideological profile of referendum voters.