How Governments Succeed in EU-related Referendums

This paper seeks to explain outcomes of EU-related referendums from the government’s perspective. These referendums have been analyzed extensively, but a comparative perspective from the role of national governments is lacking. Previous research has emphasized either voters’ considerations and campaigns or just the institutional setting. The interaction of political, institutional and economic configurations, however, has been neglected. I use a comparative approach which analyzes the combination of institutional, political and economic conditions. For this I apply fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), using an original dataset of EU-related referendums (n=58). I identify necessary and sufficient conditions to explain why governments succeeded in some EU-related referendums and failed in others. The fsQCA analysis reveals that in countries being a net recipient of EU funds or having a majority government in combination with large parliamentary support on the government’s stance on the issue, the referendum outcome was positive from the government’s perspective. EU-related referendums in countries which are a net recipient or face increasing economic growth also result in a positive outcome. I discuss the theoretical meaning and implications of the results.