Complete political careers as a predictor of ministerial appointment

The goal of this paper is to map the complete political careers of all Members of Parliament in the Canadian House of Commons from 1867 to 2015 in order to identify the evolution of archetypal elite careers. Once these career patterns have been identified using sequence analysis, they will be included in a regression model to estimate the hazard of ministerial appointment. This research extends existing research on ministerial appointment which relies on static information at the time of appointment but fails to take into account ministerial (and non-ministerial) elites complete careers.