Backgroung
According to theory developed since the 1940s (Lazarsfeld et al. 1944), the flow of political communication is not bounded within cohesive social groups that surround individuals. Rather, political communication placed beyond the boundaries of strong ties – namely, families or partners - seems to heavily affect the crystallization of voting behavior (Huckfeldt 1995). This is particularly true when a political system experiences an important upheaval in its structure (Liu Ikeda Wilson 1998).
Aim
This paper aims at analysing Italian 2013 elections, comparing a new, populist, anti-systemic movement leaded by a former comedian (the Movimento 5 Stelle) and three traditional parties (Democratic Party, Berlusconi's Freedom Party and the Northern League). According to the theoretical assumptions pointed out before, and with respect to the appearance of the Movimento 5 Stelle, that is expected to gain more than 15% of votes in the forthcoming 2013 national elections, we test the hypotheses that patterns of political communication of the voters of the Movimento 5 Stelle are completely different from those of traditional parties.
Data
The data comes from the Italian National Election Study (ITANES) Rolling Cross-Section survey, with 200 CAWI interviews per day in the last 50 days of the 2013 electoral campaign (N ca. 10.000), with approx. 3000 post-electoral re-calls.
Outcomes
Preliminary analyses seems to confirm that the spread of Movimento 5 Stelle is more based on weak social ties (namely friends or, in general, non-relatives), while the relative stability of traditional parties' political structure is rooted in strong social ties (partners or relatives).
