A Trilateral Security Dilemma: EU-Turkey-Russia Energy Relations

This article discusses the causal dynamics of energy relationship among the European Union (EU), Turkey and Russia. It is widely accepted that the EU-Russia energy relations display the characteristic of a security dilemma; neither party can improve its energy security without undermining the security of the other. Much less studied, however, is the role of Turkey in this energy security dilemma. Due to its opportune geopolitical location as a transit corridor between European markets and the Caspian, Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean reserves, Turkey is critical to EU's diversification efforts. Yet at the same time Turkey itself is dependent on Russia, which supplies more than half of Turkey's natural gas. This unique position puts Turkey into a precarious position where Ankara is frequently forced to balance its shared interests with EU with its obligations towards Russia. Russia similarly perceives Turkey in dual terms. Turkey is not only a reliable customer of Gazprom and a major conduit for Russian gas to reach Europe. At the same time, Ankara aspires to host several non-Russian pipelines and in that role Ankara competes with the Kremlin over transit routes. This article has two objectives. First, in order to unpack the nature of this “trilateral energy security dilemma” it will explore how the South Stream and the Turkish Stream have been perceived in the European and Turkish energy discourses. Turkey supported the Russian-backed South Stream project, which many had considered a rival to EU-sanctioned Nabucco, which Turkey was also a partner of. In the face of continued objections of the EU that South Stream would be in violation of the Third Energy Package, Russian President Putin canceled South Stream in December 2014 and replaced it with Turkish Stream. Since then it has been much debated in both European and Turkish policy circles how this new project would affect the energy security of the EU and Turkey. Second, the article will explain how the processes of ‘securitization’ shapes the trilateral security dilemma among the EU, Turkey and Russia. While the EU energy security discourse has, at least since the 2006 and 2009 Ukraine crises, considered dependence on Russia source of political and economic vulnerability, the Turkish discourse towards Russia had been traditionally much less de-securitized. Turkish decision makers have traditionally held the view that the energy relationship with Russia was one of a mutual and balanced interdependence where both sides needed each other in comparable if not equal degree. However, the falling apart between Ankara and Moscow in late 2015 due to the ongoing Syrian conflict paved the way for rapid and dramatic securitization of the Turkish energy discourse towards Russia, which may in fact led to further scaling down or even suspension of Turkish Stream. The article will discuss future scenarios involving Turkey’s role for European energy security, given the parallel securitization processes in both cases. The primary source of data will be energy statistics, official documents (European Commission papers, Turkey’s Energy Strategy documents etc.) and news articles.