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Nigeria and the jigsaw puzzle of democratization by elections in Africa

Africa
Democratisation
Elections
Andrea Cassani
Università degli Studi di Milano
Giovanni Carbone
Università degli Studi di Milano
Andrea Cassani
Università degli Studi di Milano

Abstract

Following a watershed presidential vote in early 2015, Nigeria joined the ranks of a limited number of sub-Saharan states whose citizens were able to peacefully oust a sitting president. Elections do not always advance democratization, yet they can. We outline a democratization by elections model and discuss how it can be applied to systematically examine the role of election-related events in the diverse routes that African regimes covered since the third wave swept the continent. We then focus on Nigeria, interpret the recent voting round in the light of previous elections and set the country’s broader democratic progress in the comparative context of Africa’s democratization. Using a new Africa Leadership Change dataset, finally, we draw an African jigsaw puzzle of democratization and trace the trajectories of election-related achievements in sub-Saharan countries. The analysis highlights two major syndromes affecting contemporary African regimes, namely, pseudo-democratization and democratic recession. While there is no unique nor predetermined way of advancing democracy, however, elections periodically open a window of opportunity for political change. The case of Nigeria shows that their reiteration can be instrumental to democratic progress.