This paper, by drawing upon the cases of Iraq and Libya, explores the relationship between democratic transition and civil war. Various academic disciplines have emphasized different determinants of a civil war. While IR scholarship has focused on the role of ethnic heterogeneity, political economists have stressed the role of natural resources and comparative politics scholars have highlighted the role of the state. This paper through an interdisciplinary and holistic approach argues that the nature of the Iraqi and Libyan state can be the explanatory factor of the failure of the popular uprisings. Both Iraq and Libya are prototypes of a security state with a facade of strength that is at the same time a fierce state that lacks the required coherence and legitimacy among their population. Drawing upon original data from the ‘Arab Transitions’, an international research project, this paper will explore the political, social and economic transformations Iraq and Libya have been undergoing since 2010. This paper by examining why protests in Iraq and Libya resulted in a violent conflict will seek to explore the root causes of these protests, how these countries have transformed (economically, socially and politically), and the outlook for the region.
