The Strategy of Secession

What strategies do independence movements pursue to achieve their goal of becoming a sovereign state? Examples include armed rebellion, civil resistance, and the pursuit of independence referenda. In this paper I develop a strategic theory of secession that: (1) Takes the independence movement as the unit of analysis: (2) Explains the ongoing development of the international recognition regime; (3) Outlines the strategic playing field for independence efforts. I show how independence movements employ combinations of violent and non-violent resistance and normative appeal to compel their central government and the international community to recognize them as a sovereign state. I argue that movements employ different combinations of coercion and appeal depending on local conditions such as regime type, the strength of the state, and the degree to which the movement is already de facto independent. I support my theory using original data on, and interviews with, independence movements.