The Impact of European Crises on National Party Systems and, Potentially, Policy Profiles

The European Union has been operating in crisis mode for nearly a decade now. Parliamentary elections in many member states brought about major upheavals since then, with established parties losing ground to euro-sceptics old and new as well as right and left (and most of them more or less populist). Our paper addresses the question how sustained these changes of national party systems turn out to be. How do they differ according to the way and intensity countries have been affected by the crises? Which factors explain whether euro-scepticism mainly benefits the Right or the Left? What bearing have historical patterns of national party competition on the chances for euro-sceptic newcomers to establish themselves? And finally: are there systematic effects of Eurosceptic parties on policy patterns? In order to distinguish mere short-term volatility from consolidation, we focus on EU member states where at least two parliamentary elections were held since 2009. Moreover, recent trends are analyzed in the light of developments since 1990. Employing a mixed-methods design, archetypical cases are being highlighted on the basis of quantitative comparisons across all cases. As it turns out, the strategic positioning of Conservative parties (whom political science research has strangely neglegted since the mid-1990s) towards European issues is a major determinant of party system dynamics and thus the breathing space for potential euro-sceptic newcomers. A second, somewhat lesser one are welfare reforms under Social Democratic governments. Policy effects of Eurosceptic parties so far remain limited and indirect.