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Why Do Regional Prime Ministers Stay Longer in Cabinet? Multilevel Political Experience and Premiership Survival

Elites
Executives
Federalism
Governance
Government
Local Government
Political Leadership
Regionalism
Juan Rodríguez Teruel
University of Valencia
Juan Rodríguez Teruel
University of Valencia
Régis Dandoy
Université Libre de Bruxelles

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of leadership stability in regional governments. Previous research has proposed several explanations to the survival of (prime) ministers, highlighting the role of institutional and individual factors. Other scholars have suggested that in multilevel political systems, politicians tend to follow multi-layered careers across different levels. Multilevel careers allow ministers to accumulate resources and experience and we hypothesize that it positively contributes to the stability of regional leadership compared to individuals that do not possess such experience. Based on the analysis of political careers from 225 regional prime ministers in Belgium, France, Spain and the United Kingdom (1980-2017), we test whether previous political positions at other levels of government affect decisively the hazard of leaving the premiership. The article concludes that the combination of these previous positions predicts significantly the survival of regional leaders.