Diffusing Containment

Mass protest against authoritarian rulers often appears to occur in waves. The standard reaction of autocratic rulers to widespread political protest is repression. However, there is considerable variation in the force and timing of repressive action: when do dictators crack down on protest, and how hard? We argue that variation does not follow solely from domestic factors, but is influenced to large extent by what rulers observe in recent anti-regime protests abroad. In particular, we argue that autocratic rulers are more likely to apply harsher repression the more of their autocratic neighbours have recently done the same. We build on recent research that has highlighted the importance of international dynamics of authoritarian learning, diffusion, and cooperation, particularly with regard to the politics of protest repression. We test our proposition using both quantitative and qualitative evidence. First, we examine the diffusion of protest repression in a global quantitative analysis of protest campaigns. Second, we trace cascades of repressive incidents in the protest waves forming the Colour Revolutions and the Arab Spring.