Explaining the Power Past Coal Alliance: An Example of Dismantling Incumbents or Just Business as Usual Industry Aging?

It is increasingly recognised that phasing out incumbent industries is as important for solving climate change as growing new ones. In particular, decarbonization of the electricity sector implies not only the introduction of low-carbon technologies but also phasing out high-carbon sources, first of all coal, which currently accounts for about 40% of electricity generation. However, in comparison with the volume of research on the policies for expansion of low-carbon technologies, there is very little research on policies supporting the contraction of high-carbon sources and their outcomes. At the same time, there are serious conceptual considerations and growing empirical evidence that phase-out of old industries is governed by logic different from that of growing new industries. Under the Powering past coal alliance launched at COP23 in Bonn in November 2017, 19 countries pledged to phase-out traditional coal power and introduce a moratorium on new coal power stations not equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Closing coal power plants and not building new ones without CCS is necessary to stop climate change. But does this new initiative represent a “Political watershed”, as the Guardian claims? Or is it simply a reflection of economic trends such as power plant aging and domestic resource depletion symbolically re-packaged as a climate pledge? To answer this question we systematically analyse the coal power phase-out pledges of the countries involved. We subsequently identify factors and mechanisms that explain these pledges using a newly proposed framework for analysing national energy transitions as the co-evolution of techno-economic, socio-technical and political conditions; and apply qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis to test our hypotheses. Our study includes data on national coal endowments and production, coal imports, the age of coal power plants, the evolution of demand for electricity, the alternatives to coal power (nuclear, solar, wind, natural gas), the strength of the special interests associated with coal and alternative sources, and the political processes that are linked with making the pledge. Our preliminary findings indicate that it is primarily naturally declining industries based on imported fuels that are phased out by the Powering past coal pledge and that the phase-out does not significantly affect the existing infrastructural or other assets. Initial observations suggest that the these countries represent only a small and declining fraction of global coal use. Our analysis helps to identify the space and preconditions for policy choices in phasing out high-carbon industries and thus critically question the political feasibility of climate strategies and scenarios.