Damned if You Do, Damned if You Don’t: An Experimental Analysis of State Response to Cyber Operations

The use of cyber operations as an instrument of foreign policy continues to facilitate growing academic research concerning interstate behavior within cyberspace. With states racing to develop capabilities there is a true sense of urgency in providing both academics and policy-makers a better grasp of this phenomenon. In recent years, experience with coercive cyber operations has led to the creation of frameworks meant to account for these events. While undoubtedly useful, these studies have been observational in nature and are constrained by the veil of secrecy that envelops these events. As such, academics are left to speculate on its inner workings with the aid of its observed outcomes and surrounding context. But if the consequences of these malicious events are as dire as the pundits would have us believe, then a better understanding of the underlying processes is called for. Despite its limited success, cyber coercion cannot be readily dismissed. Consequently, this study aims to address the fundamental question of what factors lead to successful coercion through cyberspace. Although formal models have been developed to explain these outcomes, none of these have been empirically validated. The study therefore aims to utilize multiple lab experiments to evaluate the veracity of these models. In doing so, the findings of this study serve two key purposes. Academically, the results serve to verify or challenge existing propositions concerning state behavior vis-à-vis cyberspace. In terms of policy, the findings may inform future policy development.