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ECPR

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Unpredictable Swirls: Cascades of Butterfly Flaps

International Relations
Knowledge
Theoretical

Abstract

International Relations Theory has been dominated by various –isms that may be inadequate to explain complex global phenomena, complex structures and complex processes at the micro and macro levels today. In an era that is characterized by high uncertainty, turbulence, chaos and rapid change that is difficult to be predicted and accommodated by policymakers in order to prevent crises and to promote international cooperation, new conceptual models need to be considered in order to produce a holistic theoretical framework that explains the functions, processes, interactions, interdependence and interconnectivity of actors-agents at the micro and macro levels. My proposition is that the field of IR would benefit if it borrowed conceptual/ theoretical models from the natural sciences. In this paper, I explain how Complexity and Chaos Theories could provide the basis for creating holistic models of international cooperation and international security as well as for explaining international and regional regimes (like that transatlantic structure for example or the regime of the Chinese sphere of influence vs. the regime of the liberal international order, or the regime of the E.U. sphere of influence) as non-linear substructures that are not the sum of their parts, that experience continuous emergence and that operate and cooperate at the edge of chaos, bifurcating constantly only to produce turbulence in the global superstructure of a multi-centric world. In this model, how could we promote order out of chaos? More specifically, I look at the phenomenon of “turbulence” and how it affects the creation of high complexity in the global system. I examine how turbulence in combination with structures of the international system that could be analyzed as complex adaptive systems (such as the E.U. or security regimes such as NATO or the ASEAN and so forth) inform the theoretical palette of IR to think about complexity, emergence, chaos and disorder at the micro and macro levels of the global order in new and constructive ways. It is in such discourses of IR that the prospects of transformation are to be found by leveraging relevant innovations in theoretical thought.