The Impact of European Parliament Election Timing on Electoral Support for Government and Protest Parties

Reif and Schmitt’s (1980) theory first suggested that elections to the European parliament (EP) should be considered second order elections (SOE). Although there have been many attempts to revisit and test Reif and Schmitt’s original study, the main three aspects of the SOE model (lower turnout, decrease in support for governing parties, and increase in support for minor and more extreme parties) still lack clear theorizing and testing, especially with respect to time-effects. How does the timing of EP elections, in terms of the national electoral cycle, impacts whether, in Hirschman’s (1970) terminology, voters decide to abstain (exit), vote for a protest party (voice), or remain loyal to a governing party (loyalty)? Leaving the first implication aside for now, this study examines the impact of timing of EP elections on the electoral performance of both governing parties and the most influential party family amongst protest parties, the radical right. The results of my analysis of all EP elections from 1979 to 2014 suggest that the timing of EP elections has a major impact on the magnitude of loses or gains of both governing and protest parties.