Challenges to Democracy in Europe: Declining Political Trust, Declining Turnout and their Impact on Satisfaction with Democracy in Multi-Level Political Systems

Numerous studies conclude that countries in which citizens express higher levels of satisfaction with democracy also tend to display higher levels of voter turnout in national elections (Ezrow and Xezonakis 2016). What remains underexplored is the extent to which this applies also to electoral participation at European level. We argue that declining participation in European elections is linked to declining trust in both national and EU institutions and declining satisfaction with democracy both at national and European level. Further, we argue that declining trust in democracy and its institutions might reach a critical level when citizens start to vote again but on the fringes of the political spectrum. The paper will test these expectations by using cross-time cross-section Eurobarometer individual survey data and EU Election turnout data for the last 10 years. Adding to the existing literature, we explore the interplay between satisfaction with national institutions and national democracy with participation at the European level. The paper also controls for macro-level explanatory factors such as electoral systems or government types as well as for individual level factors such as national/European identity. Our paper contributes in assessing whether current efforts to improve trust in democratic institutions and satisfaction with democracy both at national and the EU level could result in higher electoral turnout.