Explaining Patterns in the Religious Vote Cross-Nationally

What explains why some countries feature significant religious parties attracting sizeable vote shares from religiously observant voters while others do not? This paper tests an argument holding that major religious parties are less likely to feature in religiously diverse countries. Drawing from the supply-side theory of religion, this argument holds that religious groups will be less likely to support parties explicitly representing religious voters and their interests and instead will support secular parties with a better chance of winning and enacting favourable policies. The analysis conducted here examines, first, whether religious or secular parties receive the plurality of the religious vote and, second, how concentrated the religious vote is on the party winning the plurality or more of the religious vote. In keeping with this argument rooted in the supply-side theory of religion, the results show that religious voters are significantly less likely to concentrate their support on religious parties as religious diversity increases.