Targets for Reducing Agricultural Emissions ꟷ Accelerating or Retarding Policy Change?

To keep the temperature rise well below 2°C according to the Paris Agreement, significant contributions from all economic sectors have to be made in the next decades. In this regard, it is often argued that agriculture is an exceptional sector because of its overarching importance for food security. Nonetheless, many countries present their willingness to tackle emissions from agriculture by addressing the sector in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that have been submitted to the UNFCCC. As shown in a preparatory work for this analysis (Hönle et al. 2018) countries differ in their ambitions to reduce agricultural emissions, due to many different reasons. Accordingly, the availability of measures that are accompanied by modernization, efficiency-gains or other co-benefits could be regarded as a key factor for a countries’ progressive position in agricultural climate policy. However, there is also caveat that such technological solutions can increase absolute agricultural emissions, because of their incentives to extend production. Hence, another important aspect of climate policy in the agricultural sector is whether and what kind of mitigation target has been set. Countries formulated a range of different targets, e.g. absolute emission targets, targets relative to a business-as-usual scenario, intensity-targets per kg of produced food or activity targets. Amongst these, emission-intensity as a benchmark for climate-friendly agriculture seems to be preferably used by countries with a big livestock sector (e.g. New Zealand, Ireland and Uruguay). On the other hand, Germany defined an absolute emission reduction target for agriculture in its climate protection plan 2050 that requests considerable political efforts to be achieved. How and why did the political processes lead to such distinct political goals for agriculture? What interests and ideas have shaped the political debate and what can we expect in terms of a consistent reduction of agricultural emissions? To shed light on these questions, it is of interest to investigate what drove the political process in the respective countries. To this end, a Multiple Streams Approach was used as a framework for identifying the critical points in favour or against political change. Relevant data were gathered via expert interviews and document analysis. Research has been conducted in two countries each of them representing a different type of mitigation target for the agricultural sector, Uruguay and Germany. The proposed paper presents results from the research conducted in Uruguay – a country that set very precise intensity-targets for agriculture in its NDC. By analyzing actors, ideas, interests and policy-alternatives this contribution discusses the drivers and barriers for ambitious climate mitigation policy in the agricultural sector in Uruguay but also aims to figure out in how far the results are generalizable for this policy field. Thereby, a special focus is given to arguments that are relevant for the discussion of "Post-exceptionalism" in the agricultural sector.