Holding Onto Voters in Coalition: Lessons to Challenger Parties from the Experience of the Liberal Democrats in Government in the UK

The Liberal Democrats formed the UK’s first post-war coalition government in 2010 after securing one of their highest ever vote shares yet lost two-thirds of their supporters over their period in government and have still yet to recover despite offering a distinctive policy position on Brexit, the most salient issue in UK politics. This paper explores the extent to which this collapse in support is the result of UK voters struggling to accept the compromises of coalition government. Evidence in support of this hypothesis would have consequences for party strategy in other countries where single-party government is becoming less guaranteed. Based on examination of data on voters’ perceptions and on elite interviews with party leaders to understand their electoral strategy prior to and during coalition, this paper instead finds that Liberal Democrat party elites badly misperceived their supporters’ views. Having adopted more right-wing economic positions, party leaders believed that their coalition of voters had similarly shifted rightwards. The evidence from the case highlights the risk for challenger parties who have become a repository for protest votes without offering a clear ideological framework, once they enter office and face more scrutiny over their positions.