Globalisation, Labour Market Change and the Renaissance of Class Voting: The Case of Ireland and the Netherlands

In comparative political economy, it is commonly assumed that the strategies political parties pursue is shaped by the changing demands of the electorate. The impact of globalisation has uprooted occupational structures, which can be directly observed in the increased polarisation of high-skill and low-skill workers, with the implication that socio-cultural and socio-economic grievances increasingly intersect, giving rise to new challenger parties. Centre-left parties increasingly mobilise socio-cultural professionals, whilst centre-right parties mobilise business-finance professionals. The implication is that the traditional working class, and the petite bourgeoisie, have become a growing constituency for new far-right populist parties in Western Europe. We empirically test this argument in the Dutch and Irish case, using European social survey data. Ireland has not experienced the emergence of a radical right party, and does not fit the new "tri-polar" political space that has emerged in the rest of Western Europe. Our core claim is that a demand-oriented explanation (attitudes toward immigration and economic dislocation) does not explain the Irish case. Public opinion in Ireland and the Netherlands is the same. Rather we argue that the presence of a challenger party on the nationalist-left (Sinn Fein) blocks off competition from the radical right. More generally, we argue that the presence of a civic-nationalist party mitigates against the rise of populist right-wing nationalism in Europe.