The Dark Side of the Electorate? The Effect of Negativity on the Populist Radical Right Vote

Recent research has shown that voters of populist radical right parties (PRRP) in Western Europe are not simply expressing a protest vote, or some political discontent. This vote is substantially determined, and voters and parties have congruent preferences. Yet, this does not rule out the “negativity” dimension of PRRP supporters. Indeed, voting research has produced increasing evidence for the “negativity hypothesis”, i.e. that the negative feelings about parties and candidates have a larger impact on vote choice than positive feelings. Empirical findings on the comparison between positive and negative feelings towards parties and candidates in Western Europe are lacking – and particularly when it comes to PRRP voters. In this paper, we argue that in addition to their political preferences, PRRP voters are also driven by their negative perception of other parties and candidates. In order to test this leader effect, we rely on an original pooled dataset of 29 National Election Studies from ten parliamentary democracies in Western Europe (1985-2018). We find that (1) negative perception of other parties and candidates are more important for voters of PRRPs than for other party voters, and (2) that these negative feelings are more important for voters of populist radical right parties than many ideological or attitudinal drivers of their choice.