Common Trends or Diverging Trajectories? The Austrian and French Presidential Elections 2016/2017 and their Consequences

In 2016 and 2017, Austria and France witnessed intriguingly similar political phenomena: After politics in both countries had long been characterised by the competition of two party blocs, neither of their candidates advanced to the run-off of the presidential elections. Rather, results in each country respectively propelled two (self-styled) outsiders into the second round, and saw cosmopolitan-centrist candidates face off (and win) against far-right contenders. In subsequent legislative elections, formerly dominant parties failed to regain ground as their support stagnated or faltered. Yet, the parties of run-off candidates also only variedly managed to capitalise on their previous success. While Emanuel Macron’s En Marche took the French National Assembly by storm, in Austria president Alexander Van der Bellen’s Green Party dropped out of parliament. In a similar vein, the Freedom Party of Austrian runner-up Norbert Hofer markedly increased its parliamentary representation and joined the government, whereas the Front National of Marie Le Pen noted a decrease in its vote-share. This paper seeks to explain the similarities and diverging developments in the two countries. Using an ample basis of election reports, data on party and candidate support, and changes in voter preferences, we examine the effects of (Europe-wide) long-term trends and domestic electoral dynamics. We argue that although trajectories of political developments in both countries momentarily intersected, the factors underlying them differ considerably. In particular, the deeply bipolar nature of the French party system facilitated the break-through of the centrist En Marche and allowed Macron to replicate the coattail effect that previously benefitted both Gaullist and Socialist presidents. In contrast, the transformation of Austria into a de-facto three-party system and accompanying shift to the right over the last decades, failed to provide the basis for similar dynamics and highlight the potentially singular nature Van der Bellen’s victory.