The Behavioural Projections of the Evangelical's Parliamentary Group at the National Congress Under Jair Bolsonaro's Government

According to the Brazilian Constitution, in order to ensure the neutrality and the principles of democracy and governability, a secular State is guaranteed. Nevertheless the last decade has showed an increase of Members of Parliament (MPs) who are self-declared protestants (Lutherans, Baptists, Methodists, etc) and evangelicals (Pentecostals and Neo-Pentecostals). 2018’s national elections represented a substantial shift to the religious side. Mostly aligned with the new president Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), 91 MPs come from a religious background (representing an increase of 15% compared to the last legislative term). The protestants act as a unified non-partisan political group in the Congress, the so-called “Frente Parlamentar Evangélica do Congresso Nacional (FPECN)” - “Evangelical's Parliamentary Group at the National Congress” (registered in 2003). Their aim is to generate several debates and to induce on topics that are considered priority on their political agenda. Taking this phenomenon into consideration, this paper aims to analyze the impacts and projections of the current legislative term in the Brazilian Congress under the light of the FPECM. The main purpose is to confirm whether the increase of the religious politicians at the legislative power represent a shift to a more conservative approach regarding both the policies of abortion and age of criminal responsibility. As the formation of the current Congress is absolutely recent, and therefore, few data is available, we will, first of all, turn ourselves to the previous legislative term (2015-2019). We will examine not only the bills brought to the commissions and plenary sessions and the voting behaviour of the MP’s, but also its repercussion in the media on both topics aforementioned. Secondly, concerning the current legislative term (2019-2023), we will observe whether the Congress has already produced any piece of legislative work on these matters and if the MP’s already talked about it in the media (both online and offline) during the first semester of 2019. Therefore, through the comparison of the previous term and the brief analysis of 2019’s legislative work, it will then be possible to foresee some behaviour patterns for the current Brazilian National Congress. One must claim that the growth of the FPECN at the Congress is undeniable. However, bearing this analysis in mind, it is possible to observe that this increase in number of evangelical MPs does not necessarily mean an increment in conservative debates or the approval of conservatives draft bills. Based on the rational’s choice theory presented by Gary Becker in 1988 and complemented by a research from Prandi and Santos (2017), who analysed the relationship between the FPECM and its evangelical electorate, we will identify that many politicians consider themselves conservatives only because the Brazilian society points towards conservativeness in a myriad of topics (including abortion and criminal liability age). These traditional points of views can be corroborated by official public polls and are consequently reflected on the political choice of the voters. Nevertheless, our assumption is that the FPECM once in power, rationally acts aiming for survival in Congress, regardless of their voters opinion.