Trends and Characteristics of the Turkish Party System in the Light of the 2019 Local Elections

The local elections in March 2019 in Turkey is extremely important both for the opposition parties and incumbent AKP since it will be held just 8 months earlier than the parliamentary and presidential elections in November 2019, it will be an important indicator for which party/ies will possibly win the latter. Therefore, the importance of the local elections in March 2019 goes beyond its local dimension and gains a national significance. Because of this importance, both opposition parties and the incumbent AKP formed coalitions with the other parties in order to increase their chances to win the March 2019 elections. The fact that the AKP won 13 elections consecutively since 2002 has changed the political landscape in Turkey, leading to a new trend in the Turkish party system that can be termed as “electoral hegemony”. The electoral hegemony means that no other party than the AKP has the chance to win the elections and rule Turkey. AKP’s electoral hegemony allowed the party to shape politics, democracy as well as modernity. AKP’s electoral hegemony also helped a dominant party system to emerge similar to the example of the Liberal Democrats in Italy. The party system during the AKP era of the 2000s exhibited opposite characteristics to that during the 1990s, in which a high-degree of volatility, polarization and fragmentation led to the emergence of uncertainty, instability and shaky coalition governments. The major traits of the AKP period was, on the other hand, strong single-party governments, less level of volatility and high degree of certainty. Garnering the support of a broad coalition of voters, the AKP succeeded in transforming the country under “the New Turkey” motto. Despite its signifcant achievements, the New Turkey was, on the other hand, criticized for a series of shortcomings. Among others, a high level of polarization among the political parties as well as the voters characterized the New Turkey, risking the emergence of a divided society. Moreover, the AKP after the Gezi Park events in 2013 was increasingly criticized for turning autoritarian with shortcomings in the fields of rights and freedoms. Besides, according to critics, the transition from parliamentary system to presidential system in June 2018 helped the president to concentrate the political power in his hands and diminish an effective system of checks and balances. This study aims to analyze the trends, changes and continuities emerging from the March 2019 local elections in the Turkish party system in terms of volatility, fragmentation, polarization and regionalization. It will achieve this objective by comparing the March 2019 local elections with the last two local elections in 2009 and 2014. With this objective in mind, the study seeks to answer a number of questions: Is there any change to distinctive geographical voting patterns as well as volatility, fragmentation and polarization? Does the credibiliy problem of the opposition parties, in particular the CHP continue? Given the recent economic crisis in Turkey, will the AKP able to keep its broad-based coalition, who, primarily support the AKP for its economic achievements?