Globalisation, Crisis, and Voting Behaviour: The Electoral Impact of the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund

What explains the decision of EU member states to apply to the European Globalization Adjustment Fund (EGF), the European equivalent of the US Trade Adjustment Assistance? And does the Fund have an impact on citizens’ voting behavior in the targeted regions? Based on original datasets, our paper tests potential explanations for member states’ application decision and provides an empirical assessment of the causal effect of a globalization-response fund on turnout and vote for incumbent and populist parties in the affected regions. We argue that: 1) the national government’s decision to apply to the Fund is mainly a function of economic and institutional characteristics, with political and electoral considerations playing a minor role; and 2) contrary to expectations, a successful application to the Fund does not moderate the negative impact of globalization and economic crisis on voting behavior in the regions impacted by massive redundancies. However, the individual-level analysis based on European Social Survey data potentially hints at a more nuanced role for the EGF funding: a positive effect on likelihood to vote and a negative one on vote for incumbent and populist parties. This paper contributes to the literature on the electoral effects of globalization, the institutional mechanisms that compensate the losers of economic integration, and the economic voting literature.