The Role of Transitional Justice in the Prevention and Sustainability of Peace: A Mixed Methods Approach Investigating Transitional Justice and Peace in Morocco, Egypt, and Libya

The dominant literature suggests that transitional justice is necessary for broader peacebuilding processes to attain sustainable peace. Is there a relationship between transitional justice and peacefulness, and if so, what is the nature of that relationship? My research question is, “What role can transitional justice have in the prevention and sustainability of peace?” This mixed-methods study explores the relationship between transitional justice and ‘peacefulness’ by looking at three mechanisms of transitional justice – trials, truth commissions, and amnesties – in various contexts around the world and across time. Both quantitative and qualitative studies are utilized to investigate the research question. Peacefulness is the dependent variable and the presence of transitional justice is the main independent variable, and the three mechanisms of transitional justice as independent variables are later investigated. For the quantitative study, multivariate regressions are conducted to explore a precise causation between transitional justice and peace, utilizing data from the Global Peace Index and the Transitional Justice Research Collaborative. The effects of transitional justice on peace are investigated 2008-2017, focusing on 109 countries. For the qualitative study, a most similar case design is conducted to investigate the relationship between transitional justice and peace in Morocco, Egypt, and Libya. With the wave of Arab Spring protests against inequality that began in 2011 in the Middle East and North Africa, it is necessary to explore how these countries are dealing with abuses that occurred prior to and during the uprisings. The cases of Morocco, Egypt, and Libya are used because they all vary on the dependent variable of peace and have utilized transitional justice mechanisms, but differ in the types of mechanisms they have utilized. Based on the findings from both the quantitative and qualitative studies, it is evident that when transitional justice is not present, or does not take into consideration the specific context in which it is operating, sustainable peace is undermined. These findings are demonstrated in the case studies investigated. In Morocco, transitional justice was pursued sincerely in the form of a truth commission and it served the needs and wants of the people, furthering peacefulness. In Egypt, transitional justice was pursued, but due to selective accountability and the process not satisfying the needs and wants of the people, it is relatively less peaceful compared to Morocco. In Libya, the little transitional justice that was pursued has negatively impacted peace because it was pursued too early and in the absence of a political transition. International human rights norms are being eroded largely due to how transitional justice is being pursued. Including transitional justice as a part of broader peacebuilding processes encourages accountability and regard for human rights and humanitarian law, leading to more peaceful societies. As demonstrated with the case studies of Morocco, Egypt, and Libya, when transitional justice takes into consideration the needs of the people, the specific context of the culture it operates in, the timing, and political aspects of the human rights abuses, it can further sustainable peace and solidify international human rights norms.