Protests in Greece and their Long-Term Impact on Greek Politics: From the ‘Anti-Austerity’ to the ‘Protest for Macedonia’ Movements

In June 2018 the Prime Minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras signed the Prespes agreement, in an attempt to resolve a thirty-year dispute for the use of the name Macedonia by its northern neighbour, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. There has been widespread opposition to the Prespes agreement that led to a number of very large demonstrations before and after the signing of the agreement. In fact, the movement ‘protest for Macedonia’ («συλλαλητήριο για τη Μακεδονία») has attracted the support of millions of Greeks who participated in massive rallies that took place in Athens and Thessaloniki. Public opinion polls show that around 70% of the Greek population are against the Prespes agreement. Nonetheless, and amid heated debates, the Greek parliament ratified the Prespes agreement in January 2019. The Macedonian issue is currently the most controversial and dividing topic among politicians and voters. Though there is increased polarisation, anecdotal evidence indicate that it is an issue that cuts across the left-right ideological divides. More importantly, the Macedonia issue has upstaged the country’s successful completion of the eurozone bailout programme which has been the flagship policy of the current government. Greece is just a few months away from a general election and the Prespes deal is expected to lead to an increase in protest vote against the SYRIZA government. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, drawing upon the results of a survey of the Greek adult population which was conducted after the ratification of the Prespes agreement, we examine the background of the ‘protest for Macedonia’ movement by addressing four main questions. What is the social and political background of the people who engaged in the movement either as protesters or supporters and what are the reasons that led them to take part in the protests? Is there a regional element in the movement? That is, do the people who come from the Greek region of Macedonia feel stronger about the issue than people from other parts of Greece? Has the movement been used as an anti-government and anti-SYRIZA protest from those who are dissatisfied with the governmental policies on austerity? And what will be the impact of the Macedonia protests on voting behaviour? Second, we compare our findings with the results of a survey of anti-austerity demonstrations conducted in 2010 to assess the engagement of individuals in specific protest movements in Greece. This allows us to explore the level of support for protest action and who actively takes part in actual protests in Greece. This study is the first systemic attempt to identify the background of the ‘protest for Macedonia’ movement, compare it with the anti-austerity movement and place it within the broader context of protest participation and protest voting theory.