Comparing Renewable Energy Pathways in Russia and Kazakhstan: Policies, Actors and Institutions

Russia and Kazakhstan are two leading energy producers in post-Soviet Eurasia that overwhelmingly rely on cheap domestic fossil fuel resources for electricity (and heat) generation. In recent years, however, both countries have adopted policies to promote the development of renewable energy. Kazakhstan has invested much effort to be recognized as a regional leader on renewable energy and climate, setting very ambitious RE targets (30% of electricity from RE and nuclear by 2030 and 50% by 2050) and becoming, in 2013, the first country in Asia to introduce an emissions trading system. Russia, on the contrary, has a RE target of only 4.5% by 2024 and remains broadly skeptical about climate change, remaining one of the few countries that have not yet ratified the Paris Agreement. Unlike in Kazakhstan, the focus of Russia’s policies has been on high local content requirements (even if it translated into very slow RE uptake rates initially) and ultimately creating a local RE industry from scratch. Two state corporations – Rusnano (in cooperation with Fortum) and Rosatom – have been the most active players in Russia’s nascent RE sector. This paper takes a close look at the policies promoting renewable energy development in the two countries, the actors driving RE development, and relevant institutions in the respective energy sectors. Russia and Kazakhstan represent an interesting set of cases for comparison as they both are rentier states with hybrid regimes and are both influenced by Soviet path dependencies in the energy sector, such as a low energy efficiency and strong carbon lock-in. Drawing on historical institutionalism and the policy diffusion literature, the paper will compare RE policy-making and the associated institutional change in the two countries, putting an emphasis on path dependencies, reproduction mechanisms, critical junctures and political focal points, and policy feedbacks. The paper will also analyze groups of actors whose interactions are crucial for the future of the energy transitions in their countries, separating them into support coalitions versus veto players/ strong opponents), and gauging the relative status and administrative capacities of the national bodies entrusted with RE promotion.