Why Is Populism Rising in Some but Not in Other CEE Countries? Comparison of Poland and Estonia

Populism is on the rise in CEE countries. While a few countries have remained relatively “immune” to populists (e.g. Estonia, Latvia), recent elections in several other countries have brought either a victory (Hungary, Poland) or substantial increase of electoral representation of populist parties (e.g. Slovakia). It has been argued that the cause of the current rise of populism in contemporary Europe is two-fold: economic recession (the economic insecurity theory) and immigration (the cultural backlash theory). However, these theories fall short of explaining the rise of populism in CEE. There has not been a big inflow of Muslim immigration in the region. Moreover, it is puzzling why, for example, Poland (no economic recession, low socioeconomic inequality) is heading towards illiberal democracy with the populist-led government in power, whereas Estonia (recent economic recession, high socioeconomic inequality) is one of the most stable democracies in entire Europe with low support for populists. By addressing the question on why populism is on rise in some but not in other CEE countries or, more specifically, why people have turned to vote for populist parties more in Poland than in Estonia, I propose the following hypothesis. H1 on predominant values. Voters in Poland (holding predominantly traditional values) felt insecure about the cultural change proposed by more secular elites. As a result, they were more prone to (right-wing) populist appeal. Voters in Estonia (holding predominantly secular values) did not feel in conflict with the values of the elites, and, therefore, were less likely to vote for the right-wing populists. H2 on public perception of country’s functioning of democracy. Voters in Poland, whose satisfaction about the way democracy works was dropping (prior 2010), were more prone to vote for (right wing) populist parties than voters in Estonia, whose satisfaction about how democracy works in their country was more stable. H3 on countries’ geopolitical position and strength. Voters in Estonia – a small country with close proximity to Russia – are more aware of their dependency of the key European countries than voters in Poland – a more powerful medium-large country. Consequently, voters in Estonia are more prone to vote for non-populist parties to be in line with their key European allies (which are still governed by non-populists). Voters in Poland, on the other hand, do not have such inclinations. By applying process tracing as the key method, I conduct a comparative study of Poland (post 2005) and Estonia (post 2005) aimed at analysing the role of each hypothised variable and control variables (derived from the economic insecurity and cultural backlash theories). The source of information: European Social Survey, World Values Survey, World Bank data, national statistics, a small sample of originally collected in depth semi-structured interviews (with the target group being the electorate of populist parties, as well as selected social media. The results of the study are expected to shed more light in understanding the nature and causes of populism in CEE countries and, in particular, in Poland and Estonia.