Towards a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty

We need a new approach to tackling climate change. The long neglected supply-side needs to occupy a central place in collective efforts to address climate change (Lazarus et al 2015). The IPCC SR15 published in October 2018 makes clear that realising the ambition of the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep global warming below 1.5°C requires deep and rapid decarbonisation. A crucial yet neglected aspect of this is the need for international agreements and law which effectively and fairly leave large swathes of remaining fossil fuels in the ground. Towards that end, here we make the case for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (FF-NPT). Though calls for a coal convention have been made before (Burke et al 2016; Eckersley & Christoff u.d), it is clear we now need a more general FF NPT since the majority of remaining oil and gas reserves also need to remain in the ground. SR15 highlights the need to intensify and scale up efforts. Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires ‘transformative systemic change’, involving the upscaling and acceleration of far-reaching climate mitigation across all regions and sectors. We are in unchartered territory and need bold solutions equal to the scale of the challenge. This is not an energy transition like any other in which prices, the promise of additional convenience or the desire of finance to generate waves of creative destruction can be the determinants of the pace of change. We need accelerated decline and restrictions on supply. Assuming full implementation of unconditional NDCs, and a continuation of climate action similar to that of the existing NDCs, global average temperature will increase 2.9–3.4°C above preindustrial levels (UNEP 2017). This will lead to devastating consequences, especially for the poor and vulnerable and those who have contributed least to the problem of climate change. As well as seeking to de-carbonise existing systems then, it is vital that further lock-in is prevented by restricting the further expansion of fossil fuel supply.