Testing an Integrative Theory of Beliefs and Emotions Predicting Trump Support

What accounts for the intense devotion of Donald Trump’s supporters? Pettigrew (2017) has cautioned against single factor explanations. Using data from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we tested a theory of attachment to strongly-held belief systems that integrates multiple influential variables, such as partisanship (e.g., Jacobson 2017), racism (e.g., Schaffner et al. 2018), and authoritarianism (e.g., Ludeke et al. 2018) within a narrative structure that includes 5 belief components and related emotions: The evaluative component (describing alternative outcomes differing in desirability) was measured by 4 items assessing outcomes of the 2016 election as described by Trump: opposing abortion, gun control, gay rights, and (what he asserted was) a deteriorating economy (α=.63); The behavioral component (encompassing actions said to determine which outcomes will occur) by 3 items: deporting illegal immigrants, repealing the ACA, and opposing EPA regulation (α=.63); The identificational component (specifying supporters and opponents who take the actions and experience the outcomes) by a 3-item Identification-With-Trump index, comprising Republican partisanship, conservative ideology, and the perception Trump cares about people like you (α=.78); and a 7-item Identification-Against-Blacks index, comprising items on racism and racial resentment (α=.79); The normative component (beliefs relevant to morality) by the 4-item ANES authoritarianism scale (α=.64); The explanatory component (arguments and evidence showing the belief system is true) by an item asking how qualified Trump was to be president.