The Canary in the Coal Mine: Mythical Institutions, Shared Vulnerabilities, Emotions, and Nonlinear Dynamics in Politics and Policy

Theories of political and policy change pay little attention to mythical institutions and their role in exceptional political dynamics. Mythical institutions can be defined as those institutions that enjoy a mythical position in public beliefs and attitudes due to the very high level of symbolic capital they are able to captivate independent of any other objective attributes (e.g., size, location, sector of operation, and others). In an effort to fill this lacuna, the present paper develops an analytical framework that combines behavioral and institutional approaches to explain nonlinear dynamics in political and policy systems. Nonlinear dynamics involve normal-sized shocks that lead to tsunami-like crises. We argue that in order to understand nonlinear dynamics in political and policy systems we must study the exposure of large segments of society and elites to sources of shared socio-psychological vulnerabilities, such as the collapse of mythical institutions, which can occur over decades, years, and, with the rise of social media, even days or hours. The failure of a mythical institution—such as the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008—conveys a negative signal regarding the rest of the institutions in that particular sector, thereby allowing governments, organizations, and individuals to grasp the significance of emerging crises. This, therefore, constitutes the first visible indication that events are spiraling out of control, and in turn can trigger tsunami-like dynamics involving indiscriminate behavior and strong negative emotions (e.g., panic and public fears) that destroy confidence in previously solid political and policy valuations, leading to paradigmatic change. This dynamic affects entire policy and/or political systems, generating a systemic crisis that disrupts the governing balance which prevails during non-crisis times between rules and discretion. Mythological institutions signal shared vulnerabilities and are, therefore, the canary in the coal mine.