After Europe was rocked as a consequence of an energy dispute between Russia and Ukraine in January 2009, when gas supplies were disrupted for three weeks, a vigorous debate has been taking place over Russian motivations, real power and strategic goals. Ranging from the thesis of a revisionist Russia to that of a defensive one this debate has entered the realm of another, much more complex and still ongoing debate: the scope of deterrence theory and its scientific basis. Focusing on three energy disputes (January 2006, March 2008 and January 2009) between Russia and her main transit country, Ukraine, I will test the validity of Deterrence Theory and Spiral Logic, considering mainly psychological contributions from Prospect Theory which qualify Deterrence Theory as based on rationalist Expected Utility Theory. Along with the bilateral disputes between the above mentioned actors, Russian foreign policy decisions will also be linked to the general context, above all her relations with Europe, in order to determine how Russia was influenced either to escalate or to show restrain in these disputes. I will study Russian perceptions through the analysis of discourse and the statements of her policy-makers incorporating the contributions from the School of Constructivism, in order to establish how perceptions were shaped. The former analysis will help determine the reference point of Russian foreign policy around the status quo and help explain Russian behaviour in these disputes.
