Caving in or Feeling It? A Cognitive and Emotional Explanation of German Leadership in Recognizing Slovenia and Croatia

As war escalated tearing Yugoslavia apart, why were German policymakers motivated to passionately advocate for the recognition of Slovenia and Croatia? Why did their close partners on both sides of the Atlantic eventually follow their lead despite their unilateral move for recognition first interpreted as a defection from cooperation? Liberal explanations have focused on Croatian interests represented in Germany, and international bargaining in the European Community at the time. I argue that a cognitive and emotional approach better explains Germany’s advocacy for recognition and the eventual followership of France, the United Kingdom and the United States who rallied behind their stance. Policymakers were driven by their intense emotional beliefs and memories which were primed by various aspects of the crisis. Moreover, emotions resonated differently with policymakers and their publics as the conflict transformed. Revisiting this landmark case for liberal approaches is important as several voices in Germany argue for a more assertive foreign policy, and as conflicts, such as the current situation in Ukraine, defy traditional approaches focused narrowly on economic interests or norms of sovereignty. Furthermore, this study innovates in understanding leadership as a complex cooperation process rather than an individual-level attribute or the consequence of structural domination.