Avian Influenza in China: Explaining Policy Change in a Non-Democracy Through the Multiple Streams Framework

Although there is a flourishing body of literature on policy change and policymaking processes, it predominantly focuses on democracies. However, a large and increasing share of the world population lives in non-democracies. Due to a lack of research, it is difficult to explain, predict, or shape policymaking in these contexts. As the most populous non-democracy in the world, China is a case in point. Therefore, in this article I use the Multiple Streams Framework to explain policy change in China after outbreaks of avian influenza A(H7N9) during 2013-2017. I do so through causal process tracing using Chinese-language primary data. Based on the aforementioned framework, this article shows that the key reason for limited policy change at the national level was the lack of a feasible policy solution in the sense that banning live poultry markets—the main source of infections—was not possible for cultural, political, and practical reasons. In terms of theory development, this study confirms that although the Multiple Streams Framework’s was originally developed to explain policy change in democracies, it is also helpful in non-democracies. Moreover, it suggests that despite fundamental political differences, mechanisms underlying policymaking in China may be more similar to those in democracies than commonly assumed.