Struggles Over Decline in Discourse Networks: A Study on Coal Phase-Out in Germany

For many years, research and policy related to the energy transition has very much concentrated on the development of more sustainable alternatives (e.g. technologies and business models around wind and solar), thereby neglecting issues around the decline of established socio-technical systems (Turnheim and Geels, 2012). However, given the urgency of climate change and the fact that the energy transition has progressed to a new stage of development (Markard, 2018), decline and phase-out of unsustainable systems around fossil fuels (e.g. coal, gasoline) receive increasing attention (Leipprand and Flachsland, 2018; Meckling and Nahm, 2019). Public policies can play a central role in these processes, e.g. as they deliberately accelerate and accompany decline (Kivimaa and Kern, 2016). The deliberate decline and eventual phase-out of fossil fuel-based systems is highly contested. In particular, it comes along with political conflicts that involve competing actor coalitions who differ in their arguments and proposed solutions. One way of tracing struggles over decline is through the analysis of public discourse (Isoaho and Markard, in press; Rinscheid et al., in press; Rosenbloom, 2018). In our paper, we analyze the discourse and the associated discourse networks on coal decline in Germany. We use a mixed-method content analysis of articles on coal decline in two leading German quality newspapers. To identify changes in the discourse and in actor constellations over time, we use discourse network analysis. This approach allows to systematically assess the substantive layer of political discourse (main arguments and storylines) and to track the development of actor relationships. The phase-out of coal in Germany is an instance of deliberate decline and has recently gained a lot of attention in research and practice (Rinscheid and Wüstenhagen, 2019). Decided by the federal government in 2020, Germany plans to terminate electricity generation based on coal by 2038, the latest. We investigate the evolution of contending storylines around coal in Germany over almost two decades (2000-2019). Going beyond previous work, we investigate actor constellations and identify discursive turning points at which crucial political actors joined the discourse coalition calling for the deliberate decline of coal. This also entails an assessment of storylines with respect to the promise they entail for rallying pivotal actors behind the objective to instigate coal decline. References Isoaho, K., Markard, J., in press. The politics of technology decline: Discursive struggles over coal phase-out in the UK. Review of Policy Research. Kivimaa, P., Kern, F., 2016. Research Policy 45, 205-217. Leipprand, A., Flachsland, C., 2018. Energy Research and Social Science 40, 190-204. Markard, J., 2018. Nature Energy 3, 628-633. Meckling, J., Nahm, J., 2019. Energy Policy 126, 470–479. Rinscheid, A., Eberlein, B., Emmenegger, P., Schneider, V., in press. Why do junctures become critical? Political discourse, agency, and joint belief shifts in comparative perspective. Regulation and Governance. Rinscheid, A., Wüstenhagen, R., 2019. Nature Energy 4, 856-863. Rosenbloom, D., 2018. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 27, 129-145. Turnheim, B., Geels, F.W., 2012. Energy Policy 50, 35-49.