Leavers Versus Remainers: the Realignment of the British Political System Since the 2016 Referendum

Since the 1970s, much of the literature on European politics has been focusing on the emergence and structuring power of a new ‘cultural’ dimension of political competition, supplementing the old unidimensional conflict along the economic left-right axis (Downs 1957) and the four classic Rokkanian cleavages (Lipset & Rokkan 1967). This has been theorised as resting on two conceptually and historical distinct bases – the rise of postmaterialist and ‘new politics’ values (Inglehart 1977; Hooge et al. 2002; Kitschelt 1994) and processes of transnationalisation (Hooge & Marks 2018; Kriesi et al. 2006) – which have however tended to overlap over time. The progressive politicization of attitudes toward the European Union since the end of the ‘permissive consensus’ in the 1990s and the multiple crises of the 2010s (Hooge & Marks 2009; Hutter & Kriesi 2019) has further contributed to this trend. The evolution of the political attitudes and behaviour of British citizens since the Brexit referendum is an interesting case for the study of political polarization around the new ‘cultural’ cleavage. Firstly, attitudes toward Europe have rapidly coalesced around two opposing identities (‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’) which are relatively coherent, passionately held, and with a mass support. Secondly, both groups experienced a surge in electoral and non-electoral forms of political participation. Thirdly, opposition and support for Europe, previously a cross-cutting issue dividing parties, social groups, and ideological camps, progressively morphed into a reinforcing issue, aligning with positions on the GAL/TAN axis and with party-political loyalties (right-wing versus centre-left parties). The present paper explores the extent and impact of this realignment through an analysis of British election results and public opinion data (BES), showing how the Brexit referendum has contributed to the polarization and realignment of political competition in the United Kingdom.