The pathway from trusting anti-Western actors to noncompliance with public health guidance during the COVID-19 crisis in Romania

Global crises provide a fertile environment for the proliferation of disinformation, rumors, and conspiracy narratives. Geopolitical actors can take the opportunity to disseminate self-serving theses and undermine the efforts of foreign governments to fight a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Institutions like The European External Action Service have identified several cases of conspiracy narratives pushed by pro-Russian sources on news platforms and social media, in a coordinated campaign against the European Union since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Romania is one of the most pro-Western countries in Eastern Europe, but its population is not immune to disinformation originating from anti-Western actors. There is a concern that the spread of disinformation may be harmful to public health in a period when compliance to lockdown measures taken all over Europe to contain the spread of the virus is vital. Previous research (Allington and Dhavan 2020) found a positive relationship between believing in conspiracy narratives about COVID-19, such as its link to 5G networks, and noncompliance with public health recommendations, such as maintaining physical distance or staying inside the home. We replicate their findings, while also investigating the factors increasing the likelihood to believe conspiracy narratives. We investigate people's perceptions and beliefs related to COVID-19 during the lockdown period (March 15th-May 15th) in Romania. We analyze original survey data collected by CATI from a probability sample during the state of emergency. Using measures already tested in other European countries, we identify the public vulnerability to believing conspiracy narratives and their willingness to comply with public health guidance. Using Structural Equation Modeling, we check if individuals exhibiting pro-Russian and anti-EU attitudes believe more strongly in conspiracy narratives compared to the rest of the population. Then, we check if those believing conspiracy narratives are less susceptible to comply with public health recommendations. We find that the spread of conspiracy beliefs is a phenomenon related not only to the degree of compliance with health guidance from state authorities, but also with trust in anti-Western actors. There is a positive relationship between trust in Russia and belief in conspiracy narratives. There is a negative relationship between trust in the European Union and belief in conspiracy narratives. There is a negative relationship between believing conspiracy narratives about COVID-19 and compliance with health recommendations regarding COVID-19. Therefore, pro-Russian and anti-EU attitudes are indirectly linked to noncompliance with regulations, suggesting that openness to anti-Western narratives may have behavioral consequences. These findings highlight the potential sources of unsafe behaviors during the pandemic and can inform official communication strategies meant to counter both disinformation and noncompliance with public health policies.