Commission President Von Der Leyen’s European Green Deal: A First Assessment of Her Leadership Strategy and Capacity

In December 2019, Commission President von der Leyen announced a European Green Deal (EGD), aiming at achieving a climate neutral continent by 2050. The ambitious proposal includes inter alia: a carbon border tax on polluting foreign firms in an effort to shelter EU businesses striving to become environmentally-friendly, a just Transition Mechanism, mobilising EUR 100 billion, mainly targeted to support the Eastern European countries’ transition from fossil fuels, and an one trillion Euro sustainable Europe Investment Plan over the coming decade. Obviously, the transition to a carbon-neutral economy offers far-reaching opportunities. However, the EGD has also the potential to create geographic and socioeconomic divisions, fueling a populist backlash. For instance, several Eastern European countries initially blocked a deal on the Commission’s plans for a climate-neutral economy by 2050 at an EU-summit in June 2019. Furthermore, governments are split regarding the financial implications of the EGD. On the one hand, 15 southern and eastern countries reject any cuts in the cohesion funds in the next Multiannual Financial Framework for the years 2021-2027. On the other, Austria, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden want to cap the bloc's spending to 1% of its gross national income and argue that cutting cohesion funding is necessary in order to focus on new priorities including climate change. In addition, German Minister for Economy voiced his opposition against a re-examination of CO2 fleet limits for cars in summer 2021, a measure that von der Leyen announced in January 2020. Against this background, the aim of the paper is to provide a first assessment of von der Leyen’s strategy and capacity to act as a policy entrepreneur in EU climate and energy policy. It analysis von der Leyen’s leadership within the Commission and her leadership vis-à-vis the two co-legislators. Methodologically, the paper is based on document analysis and interviews with Commission officials. Inter alia, the following questions are addressed: How does von der Leyen’s steering of the Commission differ from Juncker’s leadership within the Commission? How do differences in leadership style effect the policy making process within the Commission? How does von der Leyen coordinate relations with the Council? Is Executive Vice-Commissioner Frans Timmermans, in charge of the EGD, the right choice to overcome the east-west divide in view of his rule-of-law measures against Poland and Hungary? What are the implications of Germany’s Council Presidency in the second half of 2020 on Council-Commission coordination in EGD-related issues? How does von der Leyen deal with the increased level of fragmentation in the EP, in which EPP and S&D for the first time in 40 years have no common