Regional Powers as Drivers of Regional Cooperation?: The Case of South Africa

Since the end of the Cold War, various IR scholars have focussed upon emerging regional powers such as Brazil, India and South Africa. Most of the according concepts appear to be based upon an unspoken consent that these regional powers are drivers of regional cooperation. Yet, research on regional powers lacks a clear connection to IR theories. In order to frame said role of regional powers, I shed light at how major IR theories conceptualise the impact of dominance (independent variable) upon cooperation (dependent variable). Since the result of this overview is quite puzzling, I develop a theoretical approach to the study of regional powers that is based upon moderate versions of realism. It leads me to four hypotheses regarding the impact of regional powers upon regional cooperation: H1: The rise of regional powers causes contestation because minor regional states regard a powerful neighbour that changes the regional balance of power and / or tries to establish a new regional order as a revisionist and, therefore, a serious threat. H2: Established regional powers are seen as status-quo powers. Their chances to be accepted as hegemons and promote regional cooperation are significantly higher than those of emerging regional powers. H3: The potential of regional powers as harbingers of cooperation varies from policy to policy because of the changing relevance of relative losses. Cooperation in security policy is unlikely, whereas cooperation on economic issues can be expected. H4: The overall state of regional relations influences the relevance of relative losses. Regional powers boost cooperation in cooperative strategic settings. They have got the opposite effect in confrontational settings. I refer to post-1994 South Africa in order to exemplify a theory-led discussion, in which I summarise theoretical predictions concerning the impact of regional powers upon cooperation and then provide empirical evidence. My main conclusion is that IR theories have to be adapted to the regional setting and the policies concerned in order to generate sound hypotheses.