Electoral participation and political stability: The impact of the macro-economic context in Portugal (2010-2019)

The analysis of the political system and its subsystems are one of the key elements to analyse the stability and quality of democracy. During the last decade, several factors influenced the organization and the conditions to guarantee the prosecution of government policies, but also to measure the different levels of citizens’ participation. Considering the different academic approaches and the review of the literature about the political participation, political system stabilization and the institutional elements that influence the organization and functioning dynamics of the political system, it is possible to observe the impact of macroeconomic elements and the political economic cycles in this analysis. Our main goal is to analyse the impact of several economic indicators on the trend of electoral participation of the last decade and the stability of Portuguese political system. Last decade is marked by a decrease in electoral participation, but also by the fulfilment of two complete legislatures (2011-2015 and 2015-2019). In concrete terms, in this investigation we focus our analysis on the impact of economic factors on electoral participation in the legislative elections (2011, 2015 and 2019) and on the stability associated with the political system. The present study uses a synchronic view, with a quantitative approach, using the empirical model of investigation (multilinear and multilevel regressions), to confirm or deny the influence of economic factors on electoral participation and the stability of the political system. The dynamics of the political system and the multiple internal and external factors represent a significant challenge to understand these multiple influences, according to the functioning of the political system. The present paper contributes to reinforce the study of the consequences of the economic crisis observed in the European context, as well as it allows to contribute to map the progressive functioning of political systems.