Mistrust in Science, Fake News and American Conservatism – A Tipping-Point Analysis

Social TPs as generally challenging to study. Multiple STEs have been proposed (e.g., Otto et al., 2020; Lenton 2020), including norm and value systems. However, empirical studies of normative and value change or more generally, changes in belief systems, through a tipping-point lens have so far remained elusive. Here, I present two closely related case studies of potential tipping points in belief and value systems of American voters with important implications for environmental policy making and politics. Facts and scientific information are arguably the foundation for successful environmental politics. First, I analyze the spread of mistrust in science and adoption of fake-fact beliefs among US voters between 2000 and 2020, seeking to identify whether or not there was a tipping point in the beliefs of American voters, especially Conservatives and those belonging to the Republican party, triggering a rapid transition between the following two stable states: (1) a system where mistrust in science and expertise was relatively uncommon and limited to beliefs regarding climate change and (2) a system where mistrust in science and the adoption of fake facts is a dominant feature of political beliefs, affecting multiple policy arenas, including public health and immigration. Second, since mistrust in science and expertise and the adoption of fake facts are closely related to the spread of ‘Trumpism’ – the specific set of beliefs, values and norms espoused by former US President Donald Trump – I argue that there might have been a second tipping point in the American ideological-political landscape within the same time period, triggering a rapid change from a system characterized by two major ideologies (Conservatism and Liberalism) to three major ideologies (Conservatism, Trumpism and Liberalism). I explore in more detail the implications of split of Conservatism into two distinct ideologies for future climate and environmental policy-making efforts in the US.