Costs and Benefits of Accepting Presidential TermLimits: “Should I Stay or Should I Go?”

As presidents approach the end of their constitutionally defined term in office, they face a number of difficulties, most importantly the deprivation of sources of power, personal enrichment, and protection from prosecution. This leads many of them to attempt to circumvent their term limits. Recent studies explain both the reasons for the extension or full abolition of term limits, and failed attempts to do so. Key are the electoral competition and the post-term fate of previous post holders. What we do not know yet is how the compliance with term limits of the current president is tied to the expectations for their post-term fate. In particular,we do not know whether leaders who attempt to remove term limits and fail to do so, cannot find post-term employment as a result and conversely, whether leaders who comply will have better chances for post-term employment, security, prestige and economic advantages. Hence,we ask how the decision of a leader to comply or not comply with term limits is conditioned by the expectation of their post-term fate. To address this question, this article introduces new data on the career trajectories of term-limited presidents and its systematic effect on term limit compliance