How do External Shocks frame Political Preferences on Redistribution? A Case Study of Portugal

How does do external shocks affect populations’ political perceptions? How does these perceptions affect populations’ behavior? Looking at how the economic crisis that impacted Europe in the late 2000’s and early 2010’s, we aim at understanding how this external shock affected voter’s perceptions and voting behavior in one of the most affected countries: Portugal. We use survey data from the project (2008, 2012, 2016 and 2018) to track individual perceptions and work out the implications of the shock. For instance, we look at how changes in income affect preferences for redistribution. We expect that a negative impact of the shock will boost support for social policies and re-distributive issues. Identically we will look at the expected institutional distrust. Finally, we expect to define and test the conditions under which individuals are more likely to vote for right-wing (even extreme right) or leftist parties and policies after an external shock.