Exceptional but for how long? The implications of the Covid-19 pandemic for political stability in Portugal

The multiple crises scenario of the last decade roughly – i.e. 2008-2020 - has become a modus vivendi in Southern Europe. For more than a decade, the more vulnerable countries in this region have repeatedly found themselves in the eye of the storm, be it when it comes to the economic and financial turmoil, be it in the migration crisis. Indeed, since 2008, these states have faced the turbulence of the Eurozone and the subsequent externally imposed austerity politics; and also flows of migrants spurring all kinds of perception of threats vis-à-vis the (foreigner) ‘other’. In terms of political consequences, this has largely led to increased electoral volatility, the fragmentation of the party system and the rise of political extremism. In this regard, the most concrete adverse effects started to be felt in Greece in 2014 and in Italy, one year later. At the same time, since it has been fiercely hit by the economic crisis, the Iberian Peninsula appeared to remain politically resilient to the advances of the contestation and extremism fueled by the economic and refugee’s crisis. This has stimulated a debate on what has emerged as the Iberian exceptionality. In Spain, however, the scenario started to change in 2016 with the electoral success of PODEMOS. But Portugal remained an exceptional case, even against the backdrop of the threat of political instability, which has haunted the country since the invention of ‘geringonça’ in the aftermath of October 2015 general elections. By then, left-wing parties forged an unprecedented political deal that has allowed the Socialist Party to take over power despite losing elections. Eventually, the outcome of the Portuguese general elections of the 2019 has shown the end of the country’s ‘exceptionalism’ with the extreme-right party, CHEGA, winning one seat in the Parliament. The presidential elections, held in January 2021 against the backdrop of a virus surge that exhibited governmental erratic management of the pandemic since March 2020 and structural fragilities in the NHS, has to a large extent confirmed that trend with the leader of CHEGA polling 3rd with almost 12% of the votes. The purpose of this paper is to scrutinize the effects of Coronavirus pandemic on the Portuguese exceptionalism which has marked the post-2008 period, with an emphasis being placed on the political implications of the pandemic since its outbreak until the end of the Portuguese presidency of the EU, on 30th June 2021. We will do so based on data collected from Eurobarometer to trace the public support and the national parliamentary debates about the political support to the pandemic's management between March 2020 and July 2021. The results will allow us to scrutinize the resilience of Portugal’s exceptionalism during the pandemic crisis, making possible a comparison with the political and social's behavior until 2019.