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‘Conditionality Reversed’: How Trade Became a Tool for the EU’s External Refugee Policy

European Union
Foreign Policy
International Relations
Negotiation
Trade
Refugee

Abstract

Previous studies suggest that commercial interests and values pull European Union (EU) trade policy formation in different directions. In most cases, this tug-of-war is won by commercial interests, which possess a strong base in the EU Commission and among Member States. By contrast, in the case of the 2016 EU-Jordan Compact values came out victorious. Indeed, while including trade concessions from the EU as a key component and constituting a novel and unique approach to refugee protection, the Compact represents an extreme case of value-based trade policy. How can we explain this policy outcome? This paper reports the results of a case study based on 13 in-depth interviews with negotiators from the Commission, the External Action Service, and the Amman delegation. It shows how the refugee crisis led to the Jordan Compact through three mechanisms: issue linkage, political pressure, and expertise. First, the analysis explores conditionality reversed, identifying Jordan as a policy entrepreneur leveraging the refugee crisis. Next, it shows how conditionality was used as a technical necessity to justify differentiation in EU trade policy. Finally, it demonstrates how DG Trade acted as a reluctant initiator pushing the Member States to adopt the Compact. These three mechanisms explain the outcome: Jordanian businesses were granted relaxation of the rules of origin of exports to Europe, conditioned on their employment of a minimum share of Syrian refugees.