An illiberal tango in the protest arena? The role of grassroots mobilisation in democratic erosion

The existing literature on democratic backsliding has tended to posit progressive protest as a reactive restraining force on illiberal elites. Hungary had been often cited as a model for other post-communist states. However, in recent years, the Hungarian case revealed a very specific illiberal interaction between protest and parties that may not necessarily be replicated elsewhere. In this article, we consider how the 2006 anti-government protests proved a critical juncture for contemporary Hungarian politics. They sanctioned the decline of the mainstream left, propelled the fortunes of the far-right Jobbik, and paved the way to three consecutive electoral landslides by Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in 2010, 2014, and 2018. Relying on a unique dataset of protest events spanning 15 years (2006-2020), we unearth mobilisation patterns among Fidesz and Jobbik, which proved critical in ensuring the consolidation of an illiberal regime. Unlike other instances of autocratisation and domestic responses to it, the illiberal turn in Hungary was thus crafted among nativist circles and enhanced through ideas developed therein. A key aspect of these mobilisations rests in their grassroots component and the discursive changes that ensued. Our analysis of how the dynamics of contention between Fidesz and Jobbik, and their activities within the protest arena consolidated the power of the far right, provides an alternative and more nuanced understanding of democratic backsliding. We conclude that whilst the Hungarian case may well be of illustrative value, the peculiar dynamic between government and opposition, and the role of protest are critical for understanding how liberal democracy is undermined.