Can deliberative mini-publics tackle polarisation among the wider public? Evidence from deeply-divided Northern-Ireland

Political polarisation has taken centre stage as one of the biggest challenges to democratic decision-making, both in the US and across Europe (Iyengar et al., 2012, 2019). As citizens are firmly committed to their own beliefs and discard opposing rationales, the perceived legitimacy of political decisions comes under severe strain (Hetherington & Rudolph, 2015; Mutz, 2002). In efforts to counter these trends, deliberative minipublics are increasingly called upon to consider complex and contentious political issues (Dryzek et al., 2019; OECD, 2020). One of their main strengths lies in allowing participants inside minipublics to bridge divides and to formulate cross-cutting solutions (Barabas, 2004; Caluwaerts & Reuchamps, 2014; Grönlund et al., 2015; Himmelroos & Christensen, 2014; Muradova, 2020). So far, however, it is largely unknown to what extent this ‘depolarization’ effect can extend toward the public at large – which is essential if minipublics are to serve a broader function in tackling polarisation. This study aims to provide insight into the role of deliberative minipublics in addressing polarisation in the wider public. More specifically, we ask if they can do so indirectly by promoting the perceived legitimacy of political compromises among citizens with extreme, polarised beliefs and feelings. We ask: Is it only ‘soft-liners’ who welcome minipublics to set out a path towards tolerant, integrative solutions? Or are minipublics also embraced by ‘hard-liners’ who hold more extreme issue positions and/or express a deep dislike of political others? We test this premise using original survey data collected in Northern Ireland, a deeply-divided society where a minipublic was organised on the contentious issue of the polity’s constitutional future. Our results will shed light on the extent to which minipublics can address the negative consequences of polarisation on perceived democratic legitimacy by generating support for political decisions from citizens with strongly-held beliefs.