Diverging Values in Europe? Causes and Effects of the Rise of Illiberalism in the EU

The rise of illiberalism in Europe is neither an entirely new phenomenon nor limited to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). However, due to right-wing populists’ electoral success across Europe and their ability to become the ruling party in some (mostly CEE) countries, illiberalism has started to change politics in the European Union (EU). On the national level, ruling right-wing populist parties transform political systems, on the EU-level at least one autocratic ruler is taking part in summits of the European Council. Right-wing populist parties in government office change politics of EU-level decision-making. The recent negotiations on the multi-annual financial framework or the Council decision on the emergency relocation scheme for refugees from Greece and Italy are just two examples. In order to contain Illiberalism’s transforming effect on EU-level politics and maybe the EU political system during the Conference on the Future of Europe, it is necessary to understand what are the causes of their success. Therefore, the paper presents empirical findings from a cross-country comparative study on the causes of the divergence from European values in six Central and Eastern European countries. Based on an analysis of party manifestos, an expert survey on government positions and a poll on citizens’ values conducted in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Romania in early 2021 the paper assesses the degree to which citizens’, governments’ and parties’ values diverge from European values according to Art. 2 Treaty on European Union. Based on the empirical data, four alternative hypotheses to explain the success of right-wing populism in the six Central and Eastern European countries are tested: First, the wave of illiberalism is a backlash on excessive liberalisation in economic and political terms (Krastev/Holmes; Zilonka). Second, support for right-wing populism is caused by a conservative turn in society lacking adequate representation by democratic parties in CEE party systems (Bluhm/Varga). Third, electoral success of right-wing populist parties is just one side of a new polarisation between (self-perceived) winners and losers of globalisation within in CEE societies (Hutter/Grande/Kriesi). Fourth, current illiberal populism in CEE countries is strategic and just a transitory phase of regime change towards more stable autocratic systems. Based on the newly obtained dataset, the paper tests the four hypotheses and discusses the implications of its findings for the EU political system. EU-level policy to contain transformation of EU politics and polity induced by right-wing populists has to differ considerably depending on what the drivers of the illiberal wave in CEE countries are.